Cohven
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Public track record

As of Oct 25, 2026, 3,329 resolved Polymarket positions held by 3 or more of the 43 wallets tracked by Cohven resolved on the cohort side 71% of the time. This page lists every resolved Polymarket market where at least 3 of the 43 tracked wallets held the same side at once. Nothing is picked by hand: a position is here because the cohort held it, whichever way it resolved. Realized P&L is the sum across the holding wallets, taken from their on-chain trades and redemptions. Every row links to the market on Polymarket and to each wallet on Polygonscan.

Resolved consensus positions

3,329

Resolved on the cohort side

71%

Cohort realized P&L

+$12,346,667

Weeks covered

120

Tracked wallets

43

Download CSV

All 3,329 positions since Jul 1, 2024, one row per position, wallet addresses included.

Cumulative realized P&L

Sum of realized P&L across the holding wallets for every consensus position, by the week the market resolved. Wallets of very different sizes are added together, so the curve shows direction, not the result on any one account.

Jul 1, 2024+$12,346,667Oct 19, 2026

Week by week

Each row is one ISO week of resolutions. On side means the market resolved on the side the cohort held.

WeekPositionsOn sideAgainstCostRealized P&LCumulative
Oct 19, 20261697$20,618+$1,080+$12,346,667
Oct 12, 20261899$222,608−$23,637+$12,345,586
Oct 5, 2026382612$2,706,728+$52,499+$12,369,223
Sep 28, 2026594613$3,203,875+$78,742+$12,316,724
Sep 21, 2026452619$3,060,057+$281,617+$12,237,982
Sep 14, 2026322111$10,636,530+$331,357+$11,956,365
Sep 7, 2026413110$1,001,287+$28,296+$11,625,008
Aug 31, 20261068917$2,549,338+$92,943+$11,596,711
Aug 24, 2026987028$592,731+$51,524+$11,503,769
Aug 17, 2026877314$2,739,534+$90,944+$11,452,244
Aug 10, 2026584711$2,477,324−$91,426+$11,361,300
Aug 3, 2026483216$2,765,668+$60,883+$11,452,726
Jul 27, 202639309$11,995,481+$34,766+$11,391,844
Jul 20, 202623167$5,416,694+$45,688+$11,357,077
Jul 13, 202621174$1,859,645+$54,611+$11,311,389
Jul 6, 2026573918$15,027,275+$558,493+$11,256,778
Jun 29, 2026866422$12,372,125+$378,067+$10,698,285
Jun 22, 202615114$2,277,608+$54,515+$10,320,219
Jun 15, 2026513417$12,565,644+$486,403+$10,265,704
Jun 8, 2026543915$4,315,327+$70,745+$9,779,301
Jun 1, 2026593722$22,335,067+$278,958+$9,708,556
May 25, 2026402317$2,733,766−$61,927+$9,429,597
May 18, 202625214$4,838,769+$151,893+$9,491,524
May 11, 2026674126$5,861,267+$70,991+$9,339,631
May 4, 202623149$14,314,559+$126,048+$9,268,640
Apr 27, 2026744628$23,234,840+$151,174+$9,142,592
Apr 20, 2026362016$10,294,480+$114,151+$8,991,419
Apr 13, 2026332112$816,395−$11,020+$8,877,267
Apr 6, 2026332013$21,090,508−$36,936+$8,888,287
Mar 30, 2026936924$16,951,897+$475,822+$8,925,223
Mar 23, 202616115$5,070,468+$25,196+$8,449,401
Mar 16, 202622139$12,434,292+$145,297+$8,424,205
Mar 9, 202622175$9,577,953+$168,367+$8,278,907
Mar 2, 2026452916$22,707,188+$679,250+$8,110,541
Feb 23, 2026855332$4,703,911−$153,015+$7,431,291
Feb 16, 2026342311$1,277,084+$65,202+$7,584,306
Feb 9, 2026392613$3,514,913+$245,032+$7,519,104
Feb 2, 202642366$7,943,419+$76,275+$7,274,073
Jan 26, 2026604911$18,144,255+$441,598+$7,197,798
Jan 19, 2026301911$4,748,576+$83,817+$6,756,200
Jan 12, 202622193$669,338+$13,337+$6,672,383
Jan 5, 202631274$15,008,060+$102,153+$6,659,045
Dec 29, 202519915247$15,913,788+$480,057+$6,556,893
Dec 22, 2025372215$10,019,635+$218,755+$6,076,836
Dec 15, 2025311912$4,129,005+$208,098+$5,858,081
Dec 8, 2025422418$7,145,708+$245,354+$5,649,983
Dec 1, 2025673235$7,307,618+$63,376+$5,404,629
Nov 24, 20251385$1,296,476+$5,494+$5,341,253
Nov 17, 202520911$686,447+$73,114+$5,335,759
Nov 10, 202522139$1,435,099−$153,752+$5,262,645
Nov 3, 202527189$6,280,783+$486,578+$5,416,398
Oct 27, 2025513318$8,818,184+$249,610+$4,929,820
Oct 20, 2025251312$867,847+$65,174+$4,680,210
Oct 13, 20251385$933,240+$3,763+$4,615,035
Oct 6, 202519118$2,321,558+$77,621+$4,611,272
Sep 29, 202534259$2,396,070+$107,355+$4,533,651
Sep 22, 2025972$104,987+$1,751+$4,426,296
Sep 15, 202517107$7,274,965+$391,672+$4,424,545
Sep 8, 2025972$734,802+$70,451+$4,032,873
Sep 1, 202527216$2,084,685+$71,784+$3,962,422
Aug 25, 2025743$570,352+$13,385+$3,890,638
Aug 18, 20251165$165,890+$20,026+$3,877,253
Aug 11, 202516115$491,066+$6,123+$3,857,227
Aug 4, 202517125$367,485+$41,789+$3,851,104
Jul 28, 202530255$5,404,994+$209,178+$3,809,315
Jul 21, 2025963$202,171−$6,607+$3,600,137
Jul 14, 2025862$120,241+$22,660+$3,606,744
Jul 7, 2025761$7,945,612+$187,635+$3,584,084
Jun 30, 2025493811$8,270,408+$150,362+$3,396,449
Jun 23, 202520146$4,405,418+$128,612+$3,246,087
Jun 16, 202514104$5,965,186+$9,348+$3,117,475
Jun 9, 2025281711$1,423,278−$166,700+$3,108,127
Jun 2, 2025271611$5,779,892+$305,585+$3,274,827
May 26, 202516133$709,048+$17,037+$2,969,243
May 19, 202514104$2,313,208−$279,180+$2,952,205
May 12, 20251367$272,968−$6,089+$3,231,385
May 5, 202530228$7,819,873+$213,412+$3,237,474
Apr 28, 2025564412$6,056,961+$602,136+$3,024,062
Apr 21, 2025321$1,982,746+$82,345+$2,421,926
Apr 14, 2025211$321,474+$1,675+$2,339,581
Apr 7, 2025835$144,955+$28,912+$2,337,905
Mar 31, 202525223$2,518,503+$91,998+$2,308,993
Mar 24, 2025642$425,431−$22,042+$2,216,995
Mar 17, 20251275$4,344,051+$68,119+$2,239,037
Mar 10, 202515114$1,017,587+$113,477+$2,170,918
Mar 3, 2025853$471,521+$13,114+$2,057,441
Feb 24, 202517134$1,558,985−$12,330+$2,044,328
Feb 17, 2025440$1,322,183+$22,315+$2,056,657
Feb 10, 202516124$1,044,998+$99,991+$2,034,342
Feb 3, 2025633$438,419−$50,825+$1,934,351
Jan 27, 20251091$3,946,414+$138,012+$1,985,175
Jan 20, 202536324$15,544,666+$470,471+$1,847,163
Jan 13, 2025633$492,970+$28,923+$1,376,693
Jan 6, 2025541$437,104+$15,478+$1,347,769
Dec 30, 202416133$1,501,304+$89,424+$1,332,291
Dec 23, 2024211$2,162,677+$11,532+$1,242,867
Dec 16, 202416106$941,734+$5,116+$1,231,335
Dec 9, 2024110$239,629+$18,883+$1,226,219
Dec 2, 2024431$3,494,437+$37,899+$1,207,336
Nov 25, 2024220$469,840+$5,305+$1,169,436
Nov 18, 2024642$1,545,725−$3,376+$1,164,131
Nov 11, 20241073$2,088,437+$418,642+$1,167,507
Nov 4, 202433258$9,553,163+$128,092+$748,864
Oct 28, 2024752$1,466,385+$16,916+$620,772
Oct 21, 2024651$115,156+$11,020+$603,857
Oct 14, 2024550$1,768,363+$33,071+$592,837
Oct 7, 2024871$733,870+$66,353+$559,766
Sep 30, 202411101$1,389,312−$48,474+$493,413
Sep 16, 2024761$2,063,064+$40,336+$541,888
Sep 9, 2024761$563,631+$2,452+$501,552
Sep 2, 2024330$1,346,635+$20,486+$499,100
Aug 26, 202414122$2,163,390+$56,174+$478,614
Aug 19, 2024880$1,711,100−$5,222+$422,439
Aug 12, 2024110$34,238+$73+$427,661
Aug 5, 202416124$3,919,580+$165,229+$427,588
Jul 29, 2024321$1,288,120+$191,358+$262,359
Jul 22, 2024330$407,906+$34,789+$71,001
Jul 15, 2024220$325,800+$13,751+$36,212
Jul 8, 2024110$79,776+$2,797+$22,460
Jul 1, 2024110$379,188+$19,663+$19,663

Positions, last 8 weeks

The most recent weeks in full. Cohort entry is the cost-weighted average price the holding wallets paid. Older weeks are in the CSV.

Oct 19, 202616 · 9 on side · 7 against · +$1,080
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Oct 24, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 24?Yes348¢against−$194#1#2#3
Oct 24, 2026Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?No388¢on side+$804#1#2#3
Oct 24, 2026Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on October 22?Yes419¢on side+$445#1#2#3#4
Oct 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 23?Yes366¢on side+$148#1#2#3
Oct 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 23?Yes315¢against−$29#1#2#3
Oct 23, 2026Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on October 23?Yes367¢against−$501#1#2#3
Oct 23, 2026Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes391¢on side+$656#1#2#3
Oct 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 21?Yes329¢against−$324#1#2#3
Oct 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?Yes38¢against+$116#1#2#3
Oct 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?No384¢on side+$163#1#2#3
Oct 22, 2026Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?Yes45¢on side+$686#1#2#3#4
Oct 22, 2026Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on October 20?Yes349¢against−$247#1#2#3
Oct 22, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C or below on October 20?No497¢on side−$1#1#2#3#4
Oct 20, 2026Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?No379¢against−$803#1#2#3
Oct 19, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on October 19?No396¢on side+$40#1#2#3
Oct 19, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 19?Yes355¢on side+$121#1#2#3
Oct 12, 202618 · 9 on side · 9 against · −$23,637
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Oct 18, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?Yes367¢on side+$296#1#2#3
Oct 18, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 18?Yes314¢against−$50#1#2#3
Oct 18, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 18?Yes314¢against−$65#1#2#3
Oct 18, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 18?Yes326¢against−$134#1#2#3
Oct 17, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 17?No397¢on side+$16#1#2#3
Oct 17, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 17?No382¢on side+$70#1#2#3
Oct 17, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 17?Yes34¢on side+$507#1#2#3
Oct 16, 2026Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?No446¢against−$26,458#1#2#3#4
Oct 16, 2026Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes383¢against−$1,725#1#2#3
Oct 16, 2026Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?No398¢on side+$387#1#2#3
Oct 16, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No891¢on side+$5,550#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
Oct 16, 2026US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?No35¢against+$13#1#2#3
Oct 16, 2026Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?No587¢on side+$698#1#2#3#4#5
Oct 15, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15?Yes327¢against−$119#1#2#3
Oct 15, 2026Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 15?Yes33¢against−$25#1#2#3
Oct 13, 2026Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes384¢on side+$70#1#2#3
Oct 13, 2026US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?No31¢against−$32#1#2#3
Oct 12, 2026US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes394¢on side−$2,637#1#2#3
Oct 5, 202638 · 26 on side · 12 against · +$52,499
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Oct 10, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 10?No318¢against+$22#1#2#3
Oct 10, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 10?No393¢on side+$14#1#2#3
Oct 9, 2026Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?No392¢on side+$408#1#2#3
Oct 9, 2026Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?No487¢on side+$1,028#1#2#3#4
Oct 9, 2026Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No391¢on side+$168#1#2#3
Oct 9, 2026Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes344¢against−$13,423#1#2#3
Oct 9, 2026Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No372¢on side+$11,876#1#2#3
Oct 9, 2026Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No399¢on side+$203#1#2#3
Oct 9, 2026Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1196¢on side+$6,500#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11
Oct 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 8?Yes32¢against+$0#1#2#3
Oct 8, 2026Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Yes480¢on side+$1,093#1#2#3#4
Oct 6, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No1194¢on side+$21,659#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11
Oct 6, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes314¢against+$4,066#1#2#3
Oct 6, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No590¢on side+$15#1#2#3#4#5
Oct 6, 2026Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Yes380¢on side−$194#1#2#3
Oct 6, 2026Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Yes472¢on side−$439#1#2#3#4
Oct 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 5?Yes335¢against+$101#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 5?No491¢on side+$132#1#2#3#4
Oct 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 5?Yes358¢against−$104#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No397¢on side+$775#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No1097¢on side+$13,530#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10
Oct 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on October 4?Yes381¢on side+$64#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Renan Santos finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes346¢on side+$1,769#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes416¢against−$5,310#1#2#3#4
Oct 5, 2026Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes352¢against−$1,663#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No660¢on side+$11,063#1#2#3#4#5#6
Oct 5, 2026Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes463¢on side+$6,313#1#2#3#4
Oct 5, 2026Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes678¢against−$40,981#1#2#3#4#5#6
Oct 5, 2026Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No564¢on side+$30,159#1#2#3#4#5
Oct 5, 2026Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes577¢on side+$10,022#1#2#3#4#5
Oct 5, 2026Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No382¢against−$41,604#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Yes449¢against−$4,970#1#2#3#4
Oct 5, 2026Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No976¢on side+$21,256#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9
Oct 5, 2026Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Yes891¢on side+$10,958#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
Oct 5, 2026Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No455¢against−$398#1#2#3#4
Oct 5, 2026Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes398¢on side+$1,297#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes398¢on side+$755#1#2#3
Oct 5, 2026Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?No591¢on side+$6,340#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 28, 202659 · 46 on side · 13 against · +$78,742
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Oct 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 4?No490¢on side+$42#1#2#3#4
Oct 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 4?No396¢on side+$15#1#2#3
Oct 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 4?No372¢on side+$225#1#2#3
Oct 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 3?No497¢on side+$29#1#2#3#4
Oct 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 3?Yes317¢on side+$308#1#2#3
Oct 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 2?No396¢on side+$25#1#2#3
Oct 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 2?No398¢on side+$15#1#2#3
Oct 2, 2026Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 2?No354¢on side+$221#1#2#3
Oct 2, 2026Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?No398¢on side+$1,176#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 1?No396¢on side+$46#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 1?No381¢on side+$148#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No494¢on side+$910#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?No497¢on side+$1,255#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?No378¢on side+$1,297#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?No387¢on side+$638#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes323¢against−$1,935#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Iran full airspace closure by September 30?No391¢on side+$1,747#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes310¢against−$998#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No496¢on side+$1,823#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Iran leadership change by September 30?No598¢on side+$2,054#1#2#3#4#5
Oct 1, 2026Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No998¢on side+$14,349#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9
Oct 1, 2026Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?No397¢on side+$213#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?No499¢on side+$246#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Trump out as President by September 30?No399¢on side+$2,963#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?No397¢on side−$107#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Yes351¢against+$88#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?No475¢on side+$2,823#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Christopher Luxon out by September 30?No368¢on side+$767#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes316¢against−$3,279#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?No394¢on side+$420#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes325¢against−$782#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No776¢on side+$3,995#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
Oct 1, 2026Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No498¢on side+$797#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026No496¢on side+$1,337#1#2#3#4
Oct 1, 2026Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Yes316¢against+$9,474#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?No796¢on side+$12,178#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
Oct 1, 2026US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Yes320¢against−$724#1#2#3
Oct 1, 2026US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?No599¢on side+$2,309#1#2#3#4#5
Oct 1, 2026US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?No698¢on side+$698#1#2#3#4#5#6
Sep 30, 2026US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes381¢on side+$1,190#1#2#3
Sep 30, 2026Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes591¢on side+$10,026#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 30, 2026Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes491¢on side+$4,599#1#2#3#4
Sep 30, 2026Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?No39¢against−$862#1#2#3
Sep 30, 2026Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?No390¢on side+$471#1#2#3
Sep 30, 2026Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes32¢against−$999#1#2#3
Sep 30, 2026Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes442¢on side+$6,510#1#2#3#4
Sep 30, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on September 30?Yes330¢on side+$8#1#2#3
Sep 30, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on September 30?Yes37¢against−$12#1#2#3
Sep 30, 2026Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 29?No397¢on side+$7#1#2#3
Sep 29, 2026Trump renames AI by September 30?Yes447¢on side+$472#1#2#3#4
Sep 29, 2026Trump renames AI by September 30?No451¢against+$365#1#2#3#4
Sep 29, 2026Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 29?No390¢on side+$49#1#2#3
Sep 29, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 29?No398¢on side+$3#1#2#3
Sep 29, 2026Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on September 29?Yes360¢on side+$123#1#2#3
Sep 29, 2026EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?Yes392¢on side+$12#1#2#3
Sep 29, 2026EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Yes394¢on side+$31#1#2#3
Sep 28, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28?No321¢against−$71#1#2#3
Sep 28, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on September 28?Yes320¢against+$10#1#2#3
Sep 28, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 28?No397¢on side+$6#1#2#3
Sep 21, 202645 · 26 on side · 19 against · +$281,617
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Sep 27, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on September 27?Yes350¢against−$87#1#2#3
Sep 27, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 27?Yes38¢against−$13#1#2#3
Sep 27, 2026US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?No316¢against+$39#1#2#3
Sep 26, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 26?Yes374¢on side+$8#1#2#3
Sep 26, 2026Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?Yes327¢against−$411#1#2#3
Sep 26, 2026Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?No395¢on side+$94#1#2#3
Sep 26, 2026Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 26?Yes314¢against−$1#1#2#3
Sep 26, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 26?No367¢on side+$132#1#2#3
Sep 25, 2026Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Yes466¢on side+$4,122#1#2#3#4
Sep 25, 2026Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Yes340¢on side+$1,938#1#2#3
Sep 24, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on September 24?Yes313¢against+$5#1#2#3
Sep 24, 2026Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Yes392¢on side+$5,393#1#2#3
Sep 23, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?No397¢on side+$2,505#1#2#3
Sep 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on September 23?No378¢on side+$173#1#2#3
Sep 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on September 23?No485¢on side+$182#1#2#3#4
Sep 23, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 23?No392¢on side+$130#1#2#3
Sep 23, 2026Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Yes320¢against−$1,516#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Yes332¢against+$923#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes456¢against−$13,258#1#2#3#4
Sep 22, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No377¢against−$13,884#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Yes371¢on side+$1,015#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes348¢on side+$530#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes364¢on side+$819#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No577¢against−$29,533#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 22, 2026Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Yes387¢on side+$36#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?No32¢against+$32#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Yes489¢on side−$1,698#1#2#3#4
Sep 22, 2026Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?No43¢against+$181#1#2#3#4
Sep 22, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on September 22?No399¢on side+$6#1#2#3
Sep 22, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Yes412¢against−$385#1#2#3#4
Sep 22, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?No588¢on side+$2,568#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 21, 2026Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on September 21?No395¢on side+$9#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 21?No392¢on side+$100#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 21?Yes342¢on side+$258#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes1680¢on side+$323,437#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11#12#13#14#15#16
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No326¢against+$1,294#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes35¢against−$5,437#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes324¢against−$1,150#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No391¢on side+$475#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes599¢on side+$5,393#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 21, 2026Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes465¢on side+$430#1#2#3#4
Sep 21, 2026Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No395¢on side+$981#1#2#3
Sep 21, 2026Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes427¢against−$2,209#1#2#3#4
Sep 21, 2026Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes584¢on side−$908#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 21, 2026Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No530¢against−$1,098#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 14, 202632 · 21 on side · 11 against · +$331,357
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Sep 20, 2026Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 20?No495¢on side+$42#1#2#3#4
Sep 20, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 20?No373¢against−$1,143#1#2#3
Sep 20, 2026Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes772¢on side+$22,875#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
Sep 20, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on September 20?Yes36¢against−$5#1#2#3
Sep 19, 2026Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 19?Yes362¢on side+$88#1#2#3
Sep 18, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 18?Yes328¢against−$18#1#2#3
Sep 18, 2026Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Yes469¢on side−$906#1#2#3#4
Sep 18, 2026Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No531¢against+$2,394#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 18, 2026US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes561¢on side+$1,044#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 18, 2026US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No341¢against+$407#1#2#3
Sep 17, 2026Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes357¢on side+$134#1#2#3
Sep 17, 2026Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on September 16?No389¢on side+$113#1#2#3
Sep 17, 2026Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No329¢on side+$6,048#1#2#3
Sep 16, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes1570¢on side+$271,308#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11#12#13#14#15
Sep 16, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No1027¢against+$3,029#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10
Sep 16, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes1249¢against−$73,313#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11#12
Sep 16, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No1078¢on side+$58,183#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10
Sep 16, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes71¢against−$33,871#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
Sep 16, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?No899¢on side+$28,830#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
Sep 16, 2026Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?No499¢on side+$270#1#2#3#4
Sep 16, 2026Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No999¢on side+$40,645#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9
Sep 16, 2026Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes571¢on side+$3,186#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 16, 2026Fed rate hike in 2026?No337¢against+$1,222#1#2#3
Sep 16, 2026Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?Yes318¢against−$1,218#1#2#3
Sep 16, 2026Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?No399¢on side+$381#1#2#3
Sep 15, 2026US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Yes490¢on side+$959#1#2#3#4
Sep 15, 2026US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes379¢on side+$346#1#2#3
Sep 15, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 15?No392¢on side+$17#1#2#3
Sep 15, 2026Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 14?No390¢on side+$20#1#2#3
Sep 15, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Yes34¢against−$43#1#2#3
Sep 15, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?No694¢on side+$245#1#2#3#4#5#6
Sep 14, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 14?Yes364¢on side+$89#1#2#3
Sep 7, 202641 · 31 on side · 10 against · +$28,296
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Sep 13, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 13?No393¢on side+$43#1#2#3
Sep 12, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?No344¢on side+$2,001#1#2#3
Sep 12, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 12?No398¢on side+$20#1#2#3
Sep 11, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on September 11?Yes315¢against−$30#1#2#3
Sep 10, 2026LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?No367¢on side+$813#1#2#3
Sep 10, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 10?No315¢against−$26#1#2#3
Sep 10, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 10?No387¢on side+$97#1#2#3
Sep 10, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 10?Yes325¢against+$1#1#2#3
Sep 10, 2026Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?Yes388¢on side+$16#1#2#3
Sep 10, 2026Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?No312¢against+$60#1#2#3
Sep 9, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on September 9?Yes339¢on side+$124#1#2#3
Sep 9, 2026Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 9?No392¢on side+$30#1#2#3
Sep 9, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No1194¢on side+$25,076#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10#11
Sep 9, 2026Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No794¢on side−$1,642#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
Sep 9, 2026Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Yes371¢against−$14,156#1#2#3
Sep 9, 2026Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on September 8?No395¢on side+$19#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 8?No369¢on side+$107#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on September 8?No393¢on side+$23#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 8?No387¢on side+$36#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 8?No383¢on side+$187#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on September 8?No397¢on side+$19#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on September 8?No376¢on side+$45#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 8?No38¢against−$143#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on September 8?No395¢on side+$8#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Yes37¢against−$1,021#1#2#3
Sep 8, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No596¢on side+$5,500#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 7?No383¢on side+$272#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 7?No379¢on side+$330#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 7?No396¢on side+$3#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 7?No392¢on side+$98#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on September 7?No399¢on side+$2#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 7?No399¢on side+$43#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 7?Yes310¢against−$8#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 7?No483¢on side−$438#1#2#3#4
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 7?Yes38¢against−$26#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?No372¢on side+$6,381#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes422¢against−$1,619#1#2#3#4
Sep 7, 2026Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No679¢on side+$5,971#1#2#3#4#5#6
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on September 6?No397¢on side+$14#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on September 6?No382¢on side+$54#1#2#3
Sep 7, 2026Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 6?No397¢on side+$9#1#2#3
Aug 31, 2026106 · 89 on side · 17 against · +$92,943
ResolvedMarketSideHoldersCohort entryResultRealized P&LWallets
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on September 6?No392¢on side+$58#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 6?No492¢on side+$131#1#2#3#4
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 6?No368¢on side+$59#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?No386¢against+$80#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 6?No395¢on side+$55#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?Yes335¢on side+$41#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 5?No389¢on side+$45#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 5?No394¢on side+$74#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 5?No397¢on side+$8#1#2#3
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on September 5?No498¢on side+$61#1#2#3#4
Sep 6, 2026Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 5?No398¢on side+$23#1#2#3
Sep 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 5?No397¢on side+$14#1#2#3
Sep 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 5?No399¢on side+$5#1#2#3
Sep 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 5?No397¢on side+$15#1#2#3
Sep 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 5?No393¢on side+$18#1#2#3
Sep 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 5?No395¢on side+$45#1#2#3
Sep 5, 2026Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 5?No388¢on side+$70#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes581¢on side+$2,148#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 4, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No536¢against−$193#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 4, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?Yes396¢on side+$111#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 4?No389¢on side+$34#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Yes370¢on side+$5,437#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?No342¢against−$13,530#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?Yes449¢on side+$2,360#1#2#3#4
Sep 4, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes489¢on side+$2,690#1#2#3#4
Sep 4, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes389¢on side+$731#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Yes684¢on side+$1,736#1#2#3#4#5#6
Sep 4, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Yes376¢on side+$5,897#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 4?No392¢on side+$77#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 4?No388¢on side+$58#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on September 4?No394¢on side+$28#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on September 4?No375¢on side+$163#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 4?No393¢on side+$71#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 4?No398¢on side+$6#1#2#3
Sep 4, 2026Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?No497¢on side+$523#1#2#3#4
Sep 4, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?Yes395¢against−$25,186#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes769¢on side+$15,635#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
Sep 3, 2026Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?No430¢against+$3,722#1#2#3#4
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 3?No396¢on side+$51#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 3?No394¢on side+$56#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 3?Yes33¢against−$7#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on September 3?No391¢on side+$119#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?No397¢on side+$74#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 3?Yes331¢on side+$339#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 3?No484¢against−$402#1#2#3#4
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 3?No396¢on side−$3#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?No398¢on side+$964#1#2#3
Sep 3, 2026Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on September 2?No396¢on side+$31#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 2?No397¢on side+$55#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 2?No396¢on side+$22#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 2?No396¢on side+$29#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 2?No398¢on side+$38#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Yes388¢on side+$4,022#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?No395¢on side+$318#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Yes398¢on side+$174#1#2#3
Sep 2, 2026Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on September 1?No399¢on side+$5#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on September 1?No386¢on side+$63#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on September 1?No399¢on side+$3#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 1?No367¢on side+$137#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on September 1?No393¢on side+$6#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 1?No394¢on side+$36#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?Yes398¢on side+$97#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Yes484¢on side+$1,237#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?Yes392¢on side+$966#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?Yes384¢on side+$1,353#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 1?No366¢on side+$105#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 1?No466¢on side+$104#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 1?Yes336¢against−$18#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 1?No492¢on side+$31#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 1?Yes318¢on side+$230#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 1?No393¢on side+$21#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?No397¢on side+$902#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes536¢against−$1,619#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 1, 2026NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No588¢on side+$15,522#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 1, 2026Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes329¢against+$493#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No493¢on side+$1,060#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?No3100¢on side+$17#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?No398¢on side+$102#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?No399¢on side+$197#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes333¢against+$467#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Iran full airspace closure by August 31?No691¢on side−$107#1#2#3#4#5#6
Sep 1, 2026Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31?No379¢on side+$1,062#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes313¢against+$467#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No995¢on side+$8,537#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9
Sep 1, 2026Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes36¢against+$6,446#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No996¢on side+$2,571#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9
Sep 1, 2026Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?No599¢on side+$268#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 1, 2026Iran leadership change by August 31?No598¢on side+$248#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 1, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes442¢against+$809#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No482¢on side+$753#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Yes336¢against+$59#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No882¢on side+$6,020#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
Sep 1, 2026Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?No496¢on side+$738#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes330¢against−$1,699#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No480¢on side+$274#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Yes437¢against+$6,245#1#2#3#4
Sep 1, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No1091¢on side+$11,198#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10
Sep 1, 2026Trump out as President by August 31?No399¢on side+$1,431#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?No380¢on side+$1,463#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?No537¢on side+$10,623#1#2#3#4#5
Sep 1, 2026Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?No397¢on side+$1,476#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?No392¢on side+$1,601#1#2#3
Sep 1, 2026Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?No497¢on side+$669#1#2#3#4
Aug 31, 2026Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes392¢on side+$971#1#2#3
Aug 31, 2026Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 31?No378¢on side+$57#1#2#3
Aug 31, 2026Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 30?No391¢on side+$44#1#2#3

How this table is built

  1. 1 · Cohort

    The 43 wallets tracked across Cohven accounts, excluding wallets marked as the account owner’s own. Wallets are picked by their public, verifiable P&L.

  2. 2 · Consensus

    A market side counts when at least 3 distinct cohort wallets bought it. The quorum is the same rule the product uses for its cohort view.

  3. 3 · Resolution

    Only markets that Polymarket has resolved. On side means the resolved outcome is the side the cohort held; a market that resolved against can still show positive P&L if wallets sold before resolution.

  4. 4 · P&L

    Realized P&L per wallet from its own trades, merges and redemptions, summed across the holding wallets. No unrealized positions, no marks to market.

  5. 5 · Refresh

    The table is regenerated from the chain-rebuilt database and published with the site. The generation time is printed at the bottom.

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Historical results of tracked wallets. Past results do not guarantee future ones. Cohven displays public data and computations based on it and is not investment advice. Cohven is an independent tool for Polymarket. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Polymarket.

Generated Oct 25, 2026, 14:40 EDT